With a Bali yield, the headline matters less than what was taken off to reach it. The same villa can show 12% or 8% depending on what is left out. The calculation below starts from market data and deducts the costs one line at a time.
57%
average occupancy of short-term rentals on Bali over the last 12 months (AirDNA)
USD 132
average nightly rate, 17.6% lower than a year earlier
USD 25.2k
average annual revenue per listing, across all property types
What the market data shows
According to AirDNA, Bali had about 48,000 active short-term rental listings in the year to August 2026, close to half the number a year earlier. That coincides with the platforms removing unlicensed listings from August 2026, though a change in methodology may also play a part. VillaAudit looked at three years: rental supply grew by 107%, nightly rates fell by 14% and total rental revenue by 16%, with average occupancy at 53%.
The spread between areas is wide. The table below compares like with like: one-bedroom, whole-property, upscale listings.
| Area | Annual revenue | Occupancy | Nightly rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pecatu (Uluwatu) | USD 26.6k | 69% | USD 113 |
| Canggu | USD 23.5k | 67% | USD 104 |
| Kerobokan | USD 22.6k | 70% | USD 97 |
| Mengwi (includes Pererenan) | USD 22.2k | 69% | USD 100 |
| Ubud | USD 21.8k | 58% | USD 112 |
| Seminyak | USD 21.6k | 54% | USD 124 |
| Sanur | USD 21.2k | 62% | USD 115 |
The best occupancy is not where the nightly rate is highest. In Seminyak a night costs more, but every second night is empty. In Kerobokan and Mengwi it costs less, and seven nights in ten are booked.
From gross to net
A one-bedroom villa at USD 200,000, with three revenue assumptions. The nightly rate and occupancy are scaled to this price from an AirDNA estimate for a real Bali villa.
| Per year, USD | Developer’s model | Well-run villa | Market average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nightly rate | 132 | 112 | 112 |
| Occupancy | 80% | 81% | 53% |
| Gross revenue | 38,544 | 33,113 | 21,666 |
| Booking commission (16%) | −6,167 | −5,298 | −3,467 |
| Running costs (15.5%) | −5,974 | −5,133 | −5,133 |
| Maintenance and replacements (7%) | −2,698 | −2,318 | −2,318 |
| Operator’s fee (20% of the result) | −4,741 | −4,073 | −2,150 |
| Net, before tax | 18,964 | 16,291 | 8,598 |
| Yield on price | 9.5% | 8.1% | 4.3% |
In the market-average column we did not reduce running costs or maintenance, because most of them do not fall with fewer guests. Maintenance and replacements are missing from most developer spreadsheets, although a villa let all year in a tropical climate needs them every year.
Indonesian tax: 20% for a non-resident
When the income goes to an owner who is not an Indonesian tax resident, article 26 of the income tax law withholds 20% of the gross amount, with no deductions. Which amount counts as gross, the villa’s total revenue or the payout to the owner after costs, changes the result a great deal. It depends on the structure of the purchase, so we show both cases:
| Per year, USD | Well-run villa | Market average |
|---|---|---|
| Net, before tax | 16,291 | 8,598 |
| 20% of gross revenue | −6,623 | −4,333 |
| Left, and yield | 9,668 · 4.8% | 4,265 · 2.1% |
| 20% of the owner’s payout | −3,258 | −1,720 |
| Left, and yield | 13,033 · 6.5% | 6,878 · 3.4% |
Then the ATO
As an Australian resident you declare the net foreign rent on your Australian return, converted to Australian dollars, and claim a foreign income tax offset for the Indonesian tax actually paid. The offset has a limit, so how much of the 20% you can use depends on your own tax position. Your tax agent can tell you; the Indonesian withholding slips are what they will ask for.
The end of the lease is a cost too
On a 30-year lease, a USD 200,000 villa uses up USD 6,667, or 3.3% of the price, every year if the lease is not extended. When you compare a Bali villa with a property at home that you will still own in 30 years, take those 3.3% off the villa’s yield. That is why the extension terms and price in the contract matter as much as occupancy.
What moves a villa’s yield
- Operation. Well-managed villas in the stronger areas run at 65–90% occupancy against an average of 53%. At the same nightly rate, a villa at 75% earns more than 40% more than one at 53%.
- Location. In the table above the gap in annual revenue between the strongest and the weakest area is about 25% for the same product.
- Licence and zone. Without a licence, since August 2026 the platforms remove the listing, which means no revenue.
- Supply nearby. Where the number of similar villas grows quickly, nightly rates fall.
How to read a yield promise
- Gross or net? If net, what was deducted: booking commission, the operator’s fee, maintenance, tax?
- Which year’s occupancy does it use, and where does the figure come from?
- If it is guaranteed, who guarantees it, what backs the guarantee, and what happens if the villa does not earn it?
- Does it account for the end of the lease and the price of an extension?
On the EM Villas page we show two return scenarios: the developer’s model and a more conservative one based on market data. Neither is a guarantee.
This article is general information, not legal, tax or investment advice. Rules in Indonesia change, sometimes by administrative decision. Confirm your own position with a qualified adviser before you commit.